My gut feel -- Trump wins.
By a pretty clear margin. 

Here's why:
 1. The biggest issue that people face is inflation. The average working family is having a hard time making ends meet. They blame Biden / Harris.
 2. The idea that Trump is Hitler is not resonating. In 2020, he seemed more authoritarian. Now, he's surrounded by RFK, Elon, JD, Tulsi etc.. Meanwhile the dems are executing squirrels. 
 3. People are not into more wars. Democrats seem more hawkish.
 4. Kamala is objectively un-appealing. Biden at least was a known entity. Kamala seems like she has a drinking problem. The cackling is horrific.
 5. Crypto/Bitcoin people are single issue voters and that will matter. 
 6. The Electoral college plays in Trumps favor. I think he will get one of WI, MI, PA. Possibly all 3. 
 7. America loves a comeback. Trump is the comeback kid.